🤑 How to beat the bookies by turning their odds against them | New Scientist

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a profit by betting on football matches are extremely low, but a trio of researchers has managed to beat the odds with a simple formula.


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The Daily Sport - How I used maths to beat the bookies | | The Economist
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He was an engineer, a practical man who worked from basic principles. Football for the Real Madrid president was a simple game. The formula for success.


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A system's mission is to find betting value and/or increase the chances of winning wagers. Football betting systems can range from simple to very complex.


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Pythagorean expectation is a sports analytics formula devised by Bill James to estimate the The basic formula is: The formula has also been used in pro football by football stat website and publisher Football Outsiders, where it is known as.


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After the first goal for the favourites goes in, the odds at bookies for the draw will rise. Since Arsenal have many players injured and are in a bad run of form, we fancy Crystal Palace to have a better chance of winning, more like a 0. Minute markets are available for things like goals, cards, corners and many more things, so watch the game closely and you can profit from using these bet types. Of course, any bet can lose and value betting is no different. The key to knowing when a bet truly offers value or not is by applying the below formula. In-play betting has revolutionised gambling on the sport and many successful punters bet exclusively live. When laying a bet, you are essentially betting for something not to happen; backing a bet is betting for something to happen. You could, for example, bet on a goal to be scored in the next 10 minutes, if a team is looking like scoring, but you know that team is likely to relieve the pressure in the second half, or is unlikely to go on to win the match. This is because you would need an extremely high bankroll to start off with and also because betting limits of certain bets may prevent you betting the amount the system requires. Key to this strategy is a good eye for value and catching bets that you think have been given longer odds than you think they deserve. The first is the most risky since it applies the full suggested amount while the latter uses a fraction of the recommended amount. This is a well-known one that has come under lots of scrutiny in recent years. As I mentioned earlier, this works best if you can find bets that have a high value that you can capitalise on. What is most important is that you take your time to research, educate yourself and become experienced in accurately working out true value and when bookies have made pricing mistakes. To work out what percentage of your bankroll to bet, you can use the following formula:. This means the probability of failure is 0. This is taking the formula we used earlier to work out value a step further by working out the optimal amount to bet on top. Along with introducing a host of new bet types , live betting has enabled new forms of football strategies to emerge. Value bets also require great knowledge and experience around assessing the probabilities of outcomes, how to spot value and how to apply value accurately. Always be on the look out for bets where you think the bookie has made a pricing mistake and take advantage. As well as enabling you to quickly work out value on the fly, there are a couple of football betting systems that rely almost entirely on a mathematical methodology. Rather, in-play betting is based on astute observations and spotting and capitalising on opportunities. If a team is pressuring heavily and looking like scoring, then you can utilise certain bet types to take advantage of this. If you have any questions about these strategies, or anything else contained on this site, please feel free to email at info bestbettingsites. Backing these new odds with an amount that will cover your liability will result in a guaranteed profit. Taking a fractional approach to this system allows a punter to bet a percentage of the optimum bet recommended by the kelly formula. Experienced live betting punters will know this. However, almost all the best football betting sites offer some kind of welcome bonus and you can still make them work to your advantage. There are also many other types of sign-up offers that could make you some profit. The backed bet cannot be successfully made in the example above to guarantee profit without a goal being scored, since the odds for the draw would shrink, rather than rise. Value betting is a key overall approach to wagering on the sport and value bets should be a key weapon in your arsenal. But, remember football is a game of two halves. Employ the same bank roll management and value betting strategies and know that the variance will even out over time. So, on to how this football betting system functions in practice. As you can see, with our odds applied the calculation comes out too greater than 1. Of course, nothing is guaranteed. This should be no problem for smart punters, but be aware that the initial deposit is at risk with any welcome bonus. The percentage of the optimal bet amount staked is completely up to the punter and the best plus to this approach is the protection against variance and shock results. If you need a refresher, head to our guide on in-play betting which lays out everything you need to know. This football strategy is all about minimising risk and looking for value. There are two versions of the method; full and fractional. To apply this formula, we must always convert the odds to decimal, which in this case would be 5. Either way, sound knowledge of the game and the accompanying statistics are required if you want this to be a successful football betting system for you. Taking the same bet as an example, the bookie has laid the bet of West Ham, which means that all other outcomes will win for the bookie. In-play betting allows a completely new way to think about betting on football. Taking the original odds and our applied odds, we can form the equation:. If you want to go deeper in to this idea, you can read more on the Kelly Criterion on Wikipedia. For example, one approach is to use your research to find games where teams usually score or concede early or in the first half and to bet on over 1. Some bookmakers, like NetBet , offer a standard funds type bonus. A good mathematical mind is another great attribute to help with successful footie wagers. Betting on an event that you are watching live can help improve your chances of being successful. Always Look for Value If you have a knack for accurately judging perceived value then value betting is an approach that should always pay off in the long run. If, as fully expected, West Ham take the lead in the first half, then you can simply cash out for a profit. Note that the probability is your subjective probability and not the probability ascribed by the odds. This is a form of arbitrage betting. The advantages are obvious; you can watch a game and draw better conclusions on what outcomes are likely to occur. In the past, many punters would have accounts at all the top betting sites, simply to get their hands on the welcome bonuses. If you have a knack for accurately judging perceived value then value betting is an approach that should always pay off in the long run. If you bet that West Ham will beat Grimsby Town, then you are backing West Ham and the single outcome of them winning. Simply signing up and depositing at a bookmaker is usually enough to get the welcome bonus. Some operators will offer free bets, such as the Paddy Power welcome bonus, or there are other unique types, such as the Blacktype. Utilising the partial cash out, in this instance you could cash out the profit, while leaving the rest of the bet to play. The most used and well known in-play strategy is to utilise the cash out function. Many punters like to use the function to minimise risk and walk away with smaller profits. But in-play betting offers a way to exploit these occurrences in a game. After this, you can apply this knowledge to whichever system you feel suits you best. Minute markets are one example. Simply put, the Martingale system is doubling up the previous stake on each losing bet. We touched on using the cash out feature earlier, which can be used to close a bet early and walk away with the profit. Most betting sites have partial cash outs now too. The Kelly Criterion is a system that will work out the optimal bet size based on the value offered from a bet. Knowledge of teams, results and statistics will help in the key areas, such as recognising value. So much so in fact, that if it works correctly, it will guarantee a profit. Another option is to hedge your bet by backing the draw. Use In-Play to Your Advantage In-play betting has revolutionised gambling on the sport and many successful punters bet exclusively live.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} Any online betting site worth its salt will have a cash out function now, which can be used on any in-play fixture and most bet types. Getting value from bets is a key strategy that successful punters employ to make sure they turn a profit over time. This approach is obviously more risk averse and helps to protect the budget, but the returns are of course smaller too. Unfortunately, most bookies insist that you roll-over the funds at least 3 times. Sounds simple? {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}There are a number of ways that we can try to tip the odds in our favour, by minimising risk and extracting maximum value. Laying a bet is what bookmakers do. These are the main proponents of the best football betting systems and always will be. While there is no way to guarantee success, these two points are key to any football betting strategy. Knowing what is happening in a match and then betting accordingly is probably the greatest advantage live betting has over pre-match betting. This is because a value bet is essentially a bet that you think has a higher probability of winning than a bookie has given it credit for. Check out the picture above to see the formula put into action. All successful in-play bettors have a few key approaches that are based on attention to detail and a few key notions. In-play betting experts will take advantage of the live streams to watch as many games as possible that they are betting on in-play. Again, this is a way of minimising risk. What exactly constitutes a value bet varies from punter to punter. If the answer is greater than 1. If your instincts for spotting value are accurate then this is as good a football betting system as any for the long-term. In football betting, nothing is certain. What is does offer however, is a key approach to long-term profitability. Of course, the profit is based on different factors, like the time remaining and the odds of other events occurring which would cause the bet to lose. The graphic below lays out in full the formula to apply to work out whether your bet truly offers value. The Betfair exchange is one of the best in the business and you can sign up for an account using the link below. Betfair Casino.